Not Far From It Now

Finding value is the key to betting baseball and trying to find that value with big name starting pitchers is often difficult. With the season a quarter of the way completed, we can usually separate out who is going to continue to be strong and who is in for long seasons. There are special cases where we have some top starters struggling but who could be poised to turn things around. Now is the time to bite since once they get back into a groove, the value will be long gone.

Dontrelle Willis (1-5 5.12 ERA; 1-9 Team Record -8.6 Units)

Even though Willis is on one of the worst teams in baseball, his struggles are a pretty big surprise. He had a three-game stretch where he allowed 21 earned runs in just 14.2 innings and that is the main cause for his inflated ERA. Six of his other seven outings have been quality starts including his last two so he looks to be back in good form. Pitching at home has been a disaster where he has a 10.18 ERA compared to an ERA of 2.72 on the road.

Willis is not getting good run support as he has received just four runs total in his last three starts and he is getting just 3.1 rpg on the season. Playing on a bad team is tough mentally but as long as he keeps plugging along, he will be fine. He has been an underdog in his last four starts so the value is there but it been a lost cause. Its just a matter of getting into the win column. His next start will be at home against the Mets on Friday so expect to se a big dog price on his shoulder.

Andy Pettitte (3-5 5.03 ERA; 3-7 Team Record -6.5 Units)

Pettitte has been inconsistent this season following a spectacular 2005 season. With Roger Clemens not on the roster, he has some added pressure as the now number two guy but it should not be affecting him this much. His big struggles have come on the road where he is 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA in three starts. Seven of his 10 outings have come at Minute Maid Park and there is value there. In his first two starts at home, he was a -225 and -190 favorite while his last two he was a favorite of -145 and -115.

Pettitte is allowing a ton of baserunners and that has been the biggest problem. He has a WHIP of 1.58 on the season compared to a WHIP of 1.03 last year. He had 41 walks all of last season and he is already at 22 in 2006 and is coming off a 5-walk performance against Texas over the weekend. The control will likely get better and that will put some Ws in the column. He will be pitching at Washington on Thursday and that could be the break he needs as he is 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA in five career starts against the Nationals.

Livan Hernandez (2-5 5.51 ERA; 2-8 Team Record -6.5 Units)

Hernandez has been dominant the last three seasons but has started very slow out of the gate this year. His 5.51 ERA is higher than what he has finished at in any year throughout his career so either he is going the wrong way or he is bound to turn things around. Im guessing its the latter and he looks to be heading that way already. His ERA was close to seven at the beginning of the month but his last two starts have been very solid and he will look to feed off those recent outings.

He is playing on a team with one of the worst offenses in the league and it shows in his run support. He is receiving only 3.9 rpg and has gotten three runs or less in five of his last six outings. RFK Stadium is not a hitters park yet his ERA at home is a whopping 6.84 but that should continue to decrease. On the plus side, he has allowed only two home runs in his last six starts after giving up nine long balls in his first four. He squares off against the Dodgers next time out.

Matt Fargo is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Matt_Fargo.htm

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posted by treehkczc  # 8:52 AM